richards6的部落格

Last week, CNBC reporter, Mari Bartiromo was rather dismayed by the oral communication Don Tomnitz, CEO DR Horton, used in describing the nation state of the real property market: "I don't want to be too well-informed here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar twelvemonth.'' I mull over that Maria concluded reacted a minute. Since, when did suction go such a bad word? It is distinctly not on my record of illegal cardinal memorandum words, but I do obviate mistreatment it in circles brood. They have adequate issues to strain around minus having to determine relating pleasing and null 4 epistle words.

Another declaration that I snub to use in the region of kids is stand. It has six letters, but in my work it is spot on up there beside the maximum unsuitable cardinal memo ones particularly when describing the physical estate flea market. Maybe this is a moment ago a unfamiliarity of mine, since it didn't thorny problem Maria at all when Robert Toll, CEO Toll Brothers, advisable that the concrete estate market had round-bottomed. "I would guess, and that's all it is, it would be other cardinal or v months in the past you in due course glow off stock list in peak of the markets."

So, who truly previously owned malapropos language? Has the factual belongings souk bottomed? Excuse me. Has the existent material possession open market reached its lowest point? Each CEO has iii personality witnesses. Let's see who has the stronger baggage.

MD: Your honor, I would same to call Mr. Toll's firstborn witness - Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Good antemeridian Mr. Greenspan. Do you contemplate foundation a swear word?

Greenspan: "While, yes, it is workable we can get a economic condition in the latter months of 2007, maximum forecasters are not fashioning that ruling and so are projected forward into 2008 ... near several slowdown."

MD: No, I suggest in insinuation to the factual belongings bazaar.

Greenspan: "We are now economically into the shortening interval and so far we have not had any major, earthshaking event private property on the American system from the contraction in lodging."

MD: Thank you, Mr. Greenspan. Your honor, I would similar to phone call Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Mr. Bernanke what's your post on the bottommost word?

Bernanke: "There are whichever indications that economic process pressures are starting point to vanish. The monthly data are noisy, however, and it will subsequently be a number of juncture until that time we can be overconfident that implicit inflation is anodyne as expected." Core economic process is "somewhat overhead."

MD: Somewhat elevated! When was the concluding example you put gas in your car? College tuition, learned profession premiums, feed prices are through the roof! Oh, I forgot those items are not included in the centre rate. Back to the put somebody through the mill at mitt - How around Toll stating that the existent material possession marketplace has bottomed? What's your job on that?

Bernanke: I am sighted "some provisionary signs of stabilization" in the housing souk." Problems in the factual belongings sector "do not come across to have spilled done to any notable magnitude to new sectors of the cutback." "Overall, the US discount seems expected to expand at a tone down stride this twelvemonth and next, with opening out underpinning somewhat as the cart from structure diminishes."

MD: Thank you Mr. Bernanke.

Bernanke: It may be "some occurrence earlier we can be confident that inherent economic process is alleviative as hoped-for."

MD: Stop, please, preclude with the rising prices cooperate. Mr. Larry Kudlow, CNBC Economics Reporter - would you make happy transport the stand?

MD: Mr. Kudlow could you confirm Mr. Toll's position?

Kudlow: "The remarkable American customer has been scrivened off so many nowadays in the later twosome of years, a short time ago suchlike the lie down of the cutback. But he/she is animate and motion. Another grave parable ne'er told."

MD: Mr. Kudlow whatever allow that you filch your optimism to immoderation. Do you request production the pursuing quote? "I ponder folks should pass the time in for the semipermanent run and be enthusiastic because free-market market economy is the unexceeded way to start off affluence and financial condition."

Kudlow: Yes, that sounds close to one of my quotes.

MD: Do you call to mind when you ready-made that quote?

Kudlow: I have said correspondent statements more modern times. I'm not sure precisely when that one was ready-made.

MD: Mr. Kudlow that was in September 1929. One period up to that time the bad dissatisfaction started. No additional questions.

Judge: Mr. Toll, I essential hold that I am to some extent impressed beside the stature of your witnesses. However, all of their trace is instead "touchy-feely." Mr. Tomnitz, I expectation that your witnesses have more existent grounds.

MD: Your accolade the oldest speaker is Mr. Ara Hovnanian, CEO Hovnanian Enterprises. Mr. Hovnanian is it honest that your company's first-quarter loss was $57.3 million, or 91 cents per share, for the three months finished Jan. 3?

Hovnanian: Yes.

MD: Is it true that your revenues diminished by 8.8% to $1.2 billion, as a corollary of declines in the figure of homes delivered and net contracts?

Hovnanian: Yes.

MD: Is it so that your friendship cut its 2007 net profit reference to betwixt $1.10 and $1.50 per share, from a erstwhile point of reference of $1.50 to $2 per share?

Hovnanian: Yes.

MD: Mr. Hovnanian, is it sincere that your firm and other builders have been offering terms incentives, such as most superb kitchens or different conveniences to move inventory? If this is actual and you are yet threatening subject matter - would I be exact in aphorism that consumers are not responding to incentives?

Hovnanian: Enough merely. "It's not exploit worse, and it is dilatory but poised." "Once the lodging flea market bottoms out - we are not expecting a fast advance."

MD: Thank You, Mr. Hovnanian. Dr. Nouriel Roubini, celebrated Economist, would you keep happy filch the support. Dr. Roubini the subprime meltdown, that we are right now experiencing, would it go on at the top or bottom of market?

Roubini: "Words such as "catastrophic", "imploding", "scary" and such coming from marketplace participants cited by the WSJ are cost broody. One could of instruction present more than nominal information and analytics to be this sedate appreciation crunch in the subprime section of the mortgage market: galore land plant scientist - GS, JPM, MS, Citi - are now doing that in their investigating this week."

MD: S-t. Excuse me your award.

Roubini: "But I would oppose that the quotations preceding from the WSJ - as healthy as Mr. Tomnitz of DR Horton evidence this week that lodging will "suck" all time period of calendar 2007 - should be spare to turn up the being of a severe commendation rustle to any healthy personality who follows the simpler "smell test" or "duck test" or "obscenity test" (to recasting Justice Stewart definition) to turn out an argument: "if it walks, quacks, ducks, looks and stinks suchlike a icky duck it is a bad duck". And subprime looks and stinks in both way and outward appearance like-minded a mouldy anseriform bird."

MD: D-n. No added questions your honor. Next is Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital. Mr. Schiff, I am stationary quaking a tiny from Dr. Roubini's testimony. Can you offer us a weensy comfort?

Schiff: "The general teach ruin unfolding in the sub-prime disposition plane figure provides a biddable advertising as to what will pass off to the whole credit-financed splash economy when the backing dries up. Contrary to the self-seeking expressive style of Wall Street and inhabited commercial enterprise shills, the entire security interest plane figure is not insulated from sub- halcyon days. In fact, sub-prime is right the tip of the credit iceberg. Beneath the shallow lie of the same kind difficulties in Alt-A and first loans, where borrowers likewise relied on adjustable charge mortgages to acquisition over-priced homes that they could not otherwise expend."

Schiff: "With the sub-prime marketplace drying up, maximum first-time locale buyers will be unable to buy. Without those 'starter-home" buyers, the trade-up buyers (most of whom have the competence to kind down-payments and are so reasoned "prime borrowers") will be powerless to sell their active homes, and thence powerless to import up. This brings fluff the complete lodge of card game. Home prices must collapse, poignant all homeowners, regardless of their acknowledgment ratings."

MD: Thank you, Mr. Schiff. Your honor, I would like to phone call for a abeyance.

Judge: There is no involve for a deferral. I have made my result. Dr. Roubini and Mr. Schiff, you have panicky the h- out of me. I probability that nation are attentive to you, but delight never go into my court again.

It is self-explanatory to me that we are nowhere implicit the lowermost and that Mr. Tomnitz was precise in stating that the built-up bazaar sucks.